Search Results - subject:"source of uncertainty"

Social risk and ambiguity in the trust game

Fairley, Kim; Sanfey, Alan; Vyrastekova, Jana; Weitzel, Utz - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2012

Despite intensive research there is no clear evidence for a link between lottery risk preferences and risk involved in trusting others. We argue that this is partially due to a misalignment of the underlying sources of risk. Trusting is giving up control to a human source of risk while lottery...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011113599

Uncertainty of USA GDP Forecasts Determined by The Variables Aggregation

Bratu, Mihaela - In: Romanian Economic Journal 14 (2011) 42, pp. 25-46

those made on an horizon of 3 years . The evaluation of this source of uncertainty should be considered for macroeconomic …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010934754

The Uncertainty of USA GDP Forecasts Determined by the Variables Aggregation

BRATU, Mihaela - In: EuroEconomica (2011) 30, pp. 109-122

those made on an horizon of 3 years . The evaluation of this source of uncertainty should be considered for macroeconomic …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009385706

THE ASSESSEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY IN PREDICTIONS DETERMINED BY THE VARIABLES AGGREGATION

Bratu, Mihaela - In: Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica 2 (2011) 13, pp. 31-31

important source of uncertainty inforecasting and we evaluate the accuracy of predictions for a variable obtained by … of uncertainty should be considered formacroeconomic aggregates in order to choose the most accurate forecast. … GDP components‘ forecasts aggregation are better than those made on anhorizon of 3 years . The evaluation of this source …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009395325

Is Imprecise Knowledge Better than Conflicting Expertise? Evidence from Insurers’ Decisions in the United States

Cabantous, Laure; Hilton, Denis; Kunreuther, Howard; … - Business School, University of Nottingham - 2010

Testing whether risk professionals (here insurers) behave differently under risk and ambiguity when they cover catastrophic risks (floods and earthquakes) and non-catastrophic risks (fires), this paper reports the results of the first field experiment in the United States designed to distinguish...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008602582

Combining imprecise or conflicting probability judgments: A choice-based study

Baillon, Aurelien; Cabantous, Laure - Business School, University of Nottingham - 2009

of uncertainty. Two experiments compare beliefs across sources of uncertainty and across elicitation methods (judged vs … equips beliefs with two properties - pessimism and likelihood sensitivity†to allow them to vary as a function of the source …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005014574