This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, the SIRD model, to allow for time-varying parameters for real-time measurement and prediction of the trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured using the generalized autoregressive score modeling...

We propose simple mathematical models for the legal concept ofbalancing of interests, to resolve the conflict between the rights toprivacy and to the protection of personal data in Art. 7 and Art. 8 ofthe EU Charter of Fundamental Rights (EUCh) against the right ofaccess to information derived...

We compare sparse and dense representations of predictive models in macroeconomics, microeconomics and ftnance. To deal with a large number of possible predictors, we specify a prior that allows for both variable selection and shrinkage. The posterior distribution does not typically concentrate...

Although a large number of mortality projection models have been proposed in the literature, relatively little attention has been paid to a formal assessment of the effect of model uncertainty. In this paper, we construct a Bayesian framework for embedding more than one mortality projection...

Modelle sind vereinfachte Abbilder der Realitaet und koennen zu verschiedenen Zwecken eingesetzt werdaeen. Im Kontext der Betriebswirtschaftslehre dienen sie dem Erkennen und Analysieren von Problemen und letztendlich der Unterstuetzung bei der Entscheidungsvorbereitung. Als Mass zur Beurteilung...