Computable General Equilibrium models, widely used for the analysis of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) are often criticized for having poor econometric foundations. This paper improves the linkage between econometric estimates of key parameters and their usage in CGE analysis in order to better...

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of reliable statistical models which, based on the available data, can provide accurate forecasts and impact analysis of alternative policy measures. Here we propose Bayesian time dependent Poisson autoregressive models, that include time...

We develop a transparent Bayesian approach to quantify uncertainty about linear stochastic discount factor models. We show that, for a Bayesian decision-maker, the model probability decreases with historical maximum in-sample Sharpe ratios and increases with model dimensions. We apply our...

How to best utilize the wide range of estimates of elasticities that characterize econometric literature when using calibrated models is the issue we address here through a blending of econometrics and calibration into calibmetrics. Econometrically generated literature based elasticity...

The classic 'logistic' model has provided a realistic model of the behaviour of Covid-19 in China and many East Asian countries. Once these countries passed the peak, the daily case count fell back, mirroring its initial climb in a symmetric way, just as the classic model predicts. However, in...

We present a general methodology based on skew t copulas and Bayesian inference for modelling extreme multivariate dependent losses and the regulatory capital for operational risk. Current approaches fail to model both asymmetric dependence and accurate extreme upper tail dependence (e.g. 99.9%...

This paper investigates identification and inference in a nonparametric structural model with instrumental variables and non-additive errors. We allow for non-additive errors because the unobserved heterogeneity in marginal returns that often motivates concerns about endogeneity of choices...

This paper uses computational techniques to assess whether or not various propositions that have been advanced as plausible in the literature on Customs Unions (or other regional trade agreements) may actually hold. The idea is to make probabilistic statements as to whether propositions of...

This paper provides a general representation of endogenous and threshold-based regime switching models and develops an efficient numerical solution method. The regime-switching is triggered endogenously when some variables cross threshold conditions that can themselves be regime-dependent. We...