Recent rises in macroeconomic volatility have prompted the introduction of quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) models to forecast macroeconomic risk. This paper provides an extensive evaluation of the predictive performance of QVAR models in a pseudo-out-of-sample experiment spanning 112...

We propose a new approach to estimating the random coefficient logit demand model for differentiated products when the vector of market-product-level shocks is sparse. Assuming sparsity, we establish nonparametric identification of the distribution of random coefficients and demand shocks under...

We consider structural vector autoregressions that are identified through stochastic volatility. Our analysis focuses on whether a particular structural shock can be identified through heteroskedasticity without imposing any sign or exclusion restrictions. Three contributions emerge from our...

This paper discusses the usefulness of risk scenarios-forecasts conditional on specific future paths for economic variables and shocks-for monitoring the Canadian economy. To do so, we use a vector autoregressive (VAR) approach to produce macroeconomic forecasts conditional on four risk...

We present two models for long-term inflation expectations and inflation risk premiums for Canada. First, we estimate inflation expectations using a vector autoregressive model based on the relationship of inflation with both the unemployment gap and the term structure of the Government of...

In this paper, I develop a population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm known as parallel tempering to estimate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Parallel tempering approximates the posterior distribution of interest using a family of Markov chains with tempered...

We estimate a structural model derived from the balance sheet identity to evaluate the effects of contagion and common exposure on banks' capital, which varies endogenously as a function of assets and liabilities. Through a regression approach inspired by the literature on structural vector...