Predictions about the future are commonly evaluated through statistical tests. As shown by recent literature, many known tests are subject to adverse selection problems and cannot discriminate between forecasters who are competent and forecasters who are uninformed but predict strategically. We...

Predictions about the future are commonly evaluated through statistical tests. As shown by recent literature, many known tests are subject to adverse selection problems and cannot discriminate between forecasters who are competent and forecasters who are uninformed but predict strategically. We...

The report has been prepared on the basis of seven independent provided research projects, realised by experts from all countries of CEE. The seven research projects are: 1) Development of risk analyses on energy and environmental conservation; 2) Strategic forecast on energy and environment...