Does fiscal austerity influence sovereign debt spreads in a state-dependent manner? To investigate this, we develop an endogenous sovereign default model that incorporates long-maturity debt, fiscal rules, and investment. We uncover novel insights in the Greek default. First, our model provides...

Speculative trading activity may either support efficient market functioning or introduce price distortions. Using granular, daily EMIR Trade Repository data on short sterling futures, we investigate the interaction of speculative trading and macroeconomic shocks on UK yield curve pricing over a...

We study the feasibility and benefits of implementing an across-the-curve credit spread index for the Eurozone. We propose a methodology which takes into account specific features of Euro-denominated wholesale funding markets. We discuss the role for hedge accounting and the advantages of using...

We provide evidence on the effect of the slope of the yield curve on economic activity through bank lending. Using detailed data on banks' lending activities coupled with term premium shocks identified using high-frequency event study or instrumental variables, we show that a steeper yield curve...

Long-term yields can be broken down into two components: a risk-neutral rate and a term premium. While the transmission of Quantitative Easing (QE) through the risk-neutral rate is attributed to the well-known signaling effect, changes in the term premium are usually associated to the so-called...

A parsimonious model offers an interpretation of lead-lag cyclical dynamics of the yieldcurve. Low levels of nominal interest rates and inflation, but a steeper yield curve, observedtypically ahead of an expansion reflect news about higher future output growth. If investorsuse bond markets...

The ISDA designed fallback for cash-settled swaptions with collateral discounting generates swap rate and term structure dependent exotics. To analyse precisely the fallback impact a full term structure of rates and volatility modelling is required. A recent paper Bang and Daboussi (2022)...

This study examines whether Greek sovereign spreads exhibit long memory. The analysis seeks to establish whether long memory effects are present in monthly data of the Greek sovereign spread for the sample Jan. 1999-Dec. 2020. The study performs several long memory tests and concludes that...

Investors care about the probability density of tomorrow's Government bond yields, while the literature on term structure models has focused on monthly or weekly yields. Past literature has long since documented the Garch-type conditional heteroscedasticity of daily yields, but again the...

The following paper addresses the question of whether the risk premium and the risk-free interest rate on the capital market tend to develop in the same or opposite direction or are to be understood as independent of each other. This fundamental consideration is not new, but has gained...