Caldara, Dario; Mumtaz, Haroon; Zhong, Molin - 2026
We characterize asymmetric tail risk across over one hundred U.S. macroeconomic and financial variables using a dynamic … that asymmetric tail risk is pervasive and heterogeneous: some sectors exhibit severe asymmetry while others show minimal …-driven tail risk dynamics, revealing how the balance of risks shifts across episodes, and identifies where vulnerabilities …