The lognormal distribution assumption for the term structure of interest is the most natural way to exclude negative spot and forward rates. However, imposing this assumption on the continuously compounded interest rate has a serious drawback: expected rollover returns are infinite even if the...

This paper documents nonlinear cross-sectional dependence in the term structure of U.S. Treasury yields and points out risk management implications. The analysis is based on a Kalman filter estimation of a two-factor affine model which specifies the yield curve dynamics. We then apply a broad...

We document that the expectations puzzle characterising US yield data is strikingly dependent on the monetary policy regime. We then estimate an affine term-structure model built on a parsimonious macroeconomic setup over the 1970-2001 sample. The model allows us to relate deviations from the...

We present a class of multi-factor stochastic models for energy futures prices, similar to the interest rate futures models recently formulated by Heath. We do not postulate directly the risk-neutral processes followed by futures prices, but define energy futures prices in terms of a spot price,...

Nonlinear filtering techniques and the quasi maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) are applied to the problem of estimating the parameters of quadratic models for the term structure of interest rates. It is assumed that zero coupon bond yields data have been contaminated by noise, which allows the...