We analyse the role of time-variation in coe¢ cients and other sources of un- certainty in exchange rate forecasting regressions. Our techniques incorporate the notion that the relevant set of predictors and their corresponding weights, change over time. We Önd that predictive models which...

Micro-founded dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models appear to be particularly suited for evaluating the consequences of alternative macroeconomic policies. Recently, increasing efforts have been undertaken by policymakers to use these models for forecasting, although this proved...

We introduce a forecasting method that closely matches the econometric properties required by the theory on exchange rate prediction. Our approach formally models (i) when (and if) explanatory variables enter or leave a regression model, (ii) the degree of parameter instability, (iii) the...

This paper estimates NAIRU (Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) for the Turkish economy as an unobserved stochastic variable by systems approach. Based on a Phillips curve equation combined with an Okun law for output gap and unemployment gap, the systems approach imposes stochastic...

This paper follows the Bayesian time-varying VAR approach with stochastic volatility developed by Primiceri (2005), to analyse whether the reaction of output and prices to interest rate and exchange rate shocks has changed across time (1996-2012) in the Polish economy. The empirical findings...

This paper follows the Bayesian time-varying VAR approach with stochastic volatility developed by Primiceri (2005), to analyse whether the reaction of output and prices to interest rate and exchange rate shocks has changed across time (1996-2012) in the Polish economy. The empirical findings...