This paper predicts phases of the financial cycle by combining a continuous financial stress measure in a Markov switching framework. The debt service ratio and property market variables signal a transition to a high financial stress regime, while economic sentiment indicators provide signals...

This paper predicts phases of the financial cycle by combining a continuous financial stress measure in a Markov switching framework. The debt service ratio and property market variables signal a transition to a high financial stress regime, while economic sentiment indicators provide signals...

This paper investigates the possible responses of housing returns to macroeconomic and global variables for four special municipalities in Taiwan (Taipei, New Taipei, Taichung and Kaohsiung) over the period 1991Q1 to 2010Q4. Two interesting results have been observed. First, the housing market...