This paper employs a probit model and a Markov switching model using information from the Conference Board Leading Indicator series to detect the turning points in four key US commercial rents series. We find that both the approaches based on the leading indicator have considerable power to...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess the behaviour of economic sentiment indicators at rent‐growth turning points and indicators' ability to forecast such turning points. More specifically, the paper looks at whether early signals are generated for forthcoming periods of negative...