We examine the causal relationship between US monetary policy shocks, exchange rates and currency excess returns for a sample of eight advanced countries over the period 1980M1 to 2022M11. We find that the dynamics of the US dollar exchange rate is the main driver of currency excess returns. The...

We provide a systematic empirical treatment of short-term Covered Interest Parity (CIP) deviations for a large set of emerging market (EM) currencies. EM CIP deviations have much larger volatilities than most G10 currencies and move in an opposite direction during global risk-off episodes. While...

Interest rate parity (IRP) states that the difference between the interest rates of two currencies equals the expected percentage change in the associated exchange rate. Unfortunately, IRP is ambiguous. There are two inconsistent values of the expected percentage change in the exchange rate,...

In this paper, I analyze covered interest rate parity (CIP) deviations among thirteen (13) Emerging Market economies and the US dollar. Also, I document a new triangular connection formed by the US dollar, oil prices in US dollars, and CIP deviations. I find empirical evidence that a stronger...

Using confidential daily foreign exchange interventions (FXI) data, we analyse the FXI episode of the Bank of Israel (BOI) from 2013 to 2019. We find that a purchase of US dollar (USD) 1 billion is on average associated with a depreciation of the Israeli new shekel (ILS) by 0.82%-0.83%, which is...

Interest rate parity (IRP) states that the difference between the interest rates of two currencies equals the expected percentage change in the associated exchange rate. Unfortunately, IRP is ambiguous. There are two inconsistent values of the expected percentage change in the exchange rate,...

This paper studies the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the deviations of Covered Interest Rate parity. I develop a method for estimating the daily uncertainty via endogenous factor clustering to determine the currency grouping and an optimal number of groups and general factors explaining...