Cet article vise à évaluer la croissance potentielle en France, en Allemagne et en zone euro au cours de la période postérieure à la crise de crédit de 2007-2008 jusqu’à l’horizon de prévision 2012. Une telle évaluation joue en effet un rôle central dans celle du déficit...

Differencing is a very popular stationary transformation for series with stochastic trends. Moreover, when the differenced series is heteroscedastic, authors commonly model it using an ARMA-GARCH model. The corresponding ARIMA-GARCH model is then used to forecast future values of the original...

The Hodrick-Prescott filter applied to seasonally adjusted series has become a paradigm for business-cycle estimation at many economic agencies and institutions. We show that the filter can be obtained from MMSE estimation of the components in an unobserved component model, where the original...

This paper deals with the estimation of the output gap. We use uni- and bivariate unobserved components models in order to decompose the observed German GDP-series into trend, cycle and seasonal components. The results show that using the ifo business assessment variable as an indicator for the...

This paper deals with the estimation of the output gap. We use uni- and bivariate unobserved components models in order to decompose the observed German GDP-series into trend, cycle and seasonal components. The results show that using the ifo business assessment variable as an indicator for the...

This paper deals with the estimation of the output gap. We use uni- and bivariate unobserved components models in order to decompose the observed German GDP-series into trend, cycle and seasonal components. The results show that using the ifo business assessment variable as an indicator for the...

The aim of this paper is to achieve a reliable estimate of the output gap for Italy through the development of several models within the class of the unobserved component time series models. These formulations imply the decomposition of output into a trend component (the 'potential output') and...

Economists often seek to estimate unobserved variables, representing “equilibrium” or “expected” values of economic variables, as benchmarks against which observed, realised values of these variables may be evaluated. Such comparisons are often used as economic policy indicators, for...