In this Paper we investigate the ability of different models to produce useful VaR-estimates for exchange rate positions. We make a distinction between models that include sophisticated tail properties and models that do not. The former type of models often leads to too extreme VaR-estimates,...

The recursive prediction and filtering formulas of the Kalman filter are difficult to implementin nonlinear state space models. For Gaussian linear state space models, or for models with qualitativestate variables, the recursive formulas of the filter require the updating of a finite number...

Diese Dissertation untersucht die Messung finanzieller Risiken und besteht aus vier eigenständigen Forschungspapieren über die Analyse, Modellierung und Vorhersage solcher Risiken in verschiedenen wirtschaftlichen Szenarien. Die gegenwärtigen Risikomaße ignorieren größtenteils das...