Investitionsentscheidungen sind stets unter Unsicherheit zu treffen.1 Der Entscheidungsträgerkann dabei nicht mit hinreichender Genauigkeit den Zusammenhang zwischen den Einflussgrößenund der Zielfunktion seines Entscheidungsproblems formulieren. Hinzu kommt, dassdie Werte der...

Financial institutions are faced with the challenge to forecast future credit portfolio losses.It is common practice to focus on portfolio models consisting of a limited set of parameters,such as the probability of default, asset correlation, loss given default or exposure at default.A simple...

New Keynesian models of monetary policy predict no role for monetary aggregates, in the sense that the level of output, prices, and interest rates can be determined without knowledge of the quantity of money. This paper evaluates the empirical validity of this prediction by studying the effects...

We propose a general robust semiparametric bootstrap method to estimate conditional predictive distributions of GARCH-type models. Our approach is based on a robust estimator for the parameters in GARCH-type models and a robustified resampling method for standardized GARCH residuals, which...