Factor models have been applied extensively for forecasting when high dimensional datasets are available. In this case, the number of variables can be very large. For instance, usual dynamic factor models in central banks handle over 100 variables. However, there is a growing body of the...

We develop a method to estimate and assess uncertainty in the total fertility rate over time. Our estimates are based on multiple imperfect observations from different data sources including surveys and censuses. We take account of measurement error by decomposing it into bias and variance and...

We consider estimation of a linear or nonparametric additive model in which a few coefficients or additive components are "large" and may be objects of substantive interest, whereas others are "small" but not necessarily zero. The number of small coefficients or additive components may exceed...

Locally weighted regression is a technique that predicts the response for new data items from their neighbors in the training data set, where closer data items are assigned higher weights in the prediction. However, the original method may suffer from overfitting and fail to select the relevant...