We explore the pricing of variance risk by decomposing stocks' total variance into systematicand idiosyncratic return variances. While systematic variance risk exhibits a negative priceof risk, common shocks to the variances of idiosyncratic returns carry a large positive riskpremium. This...

This study explores the information content of HML and SMB by linking the Fama-French factors toshocks in the state variables which predict future investment opportunities. It shows that the HMLfactor contains information about shocks to default spread. Moreover, the Fama-French modelexplains...

Multilevel models are widely used in education and social science research. However, theeffects of omitting levels of the hierarchy on the variance decomposition and the clusteringeffects have not been well documented...

The distribution of the aggregate claim size is the considerable importance in insurance theory since, for example, it is needed as an input in premium calculation principles and reserve calculation which plays an important paper in ruin theory. In this paper a Bayesian study for the collective...

Lange Zeit stand man in der Marketing- und Sozialforschung vor dem Problem die kausalenZusammenhänge nicht beobachtbarer Variablen – so genannte Konstrukte – modellierenund vor allem erforschen zu können.Zwar gab es die Regressionsanalyse, mit deren Hilfe man den Einfluss mehrerer...

Variance contracts permit the trading of ’variance risk’, i.e. the risk that the realizedvariance of stock returns changes randomly over time. We discuss why investorsmight want to trade this type of risk, and why they might prefer a variance contractto standard calls and puts for this...

We consider a simple random walk process, a special case ofthe Martingale model, which exhibits a deterministic break in its drift term,for instance, from positive to negative. This particular example can be aplausible model for a time series on exchange rates which displays a persistentcurrency...

Die klassische, von Markowitz entwickelte, Portfoliotheorie basiert auf spezifischen Risikomaßen, der Renditevarianz bzw. der Renditestandardabweichung. Diese Risikomaße messen primär die Volatilität der Renditeentwicklung...