Measuring the effects of discretionary fiscal policy is both difficult and controversial, as some explicit or implicit identifying assumptions need to be made to isolate exogenous and unanticipated changes in taxes and government spending. Studies based on structural vector autoregressions...

This study aims to assess the gross domestic debt sustainability of Turkey through construction of a risk index suitable for short-term policy making. Construction of the risk index follows a methodology similar to the Garcia and Rigobon's Risk Management Approach (2004). However, unlike most...

This paper explores empirically the link between French equities returns Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the state of financial markets cycle. The econometric analysis is based on a simple vector autoregression setup. Using quarterly data from 1970Q4 to 2008Q3, it turns out that the k-year VaR of French...