A dynamic factor VAR model, estimated by MCMC simulation, is employed to assess the relative severity of post-war U.S. recessions. Joint modeling and estimation of all model unknowns yields rank estimates that fully account for parameter uncertainty. A convenient by-product of the simulation...

This paper formulates and estimates a three-shock US business cycle model. The estimated model accounts for a substantial fraction of the cyclical variation in output and is consistent with the observed inertia in inflation. This is true even though firms in the model reoptimize prices on...

The existing literature on the theoretical relationship between the rate of inflation and real stock prices in an economy has shown varied predictions about the long run effects of inflation on real stock prices. In this paper, we present some time series evidence on this issue using South...

Abstract We investigate the response of the news‐based corruption reflection index to positive shocks in oil rents in Iran. Using annual data spanning from 1962 to 2019, we employ the vector autoregressive model and analyze generalized impulse responses. Our findings reveal a statistically...