In this paper, we examine how the presence of country insurance schemes affects policymakers' incentives to undertake reforms. Such schemes (especially when made contingent on negative external shocks) are more likely to foster than to delay reform in crisis-prone volatile economies. The...

We measure bank vulnerability in emerging markets using the distance-to-default, a risk-neutral indicator based on Merton's (1974) structural model of credit risk. The indicator is estimated using equity prices and balance-sheet data for 38 banks in 14 emerging market countries. Results show it...

This report on the Observance of Standards and Codes on Fiscal Transparency Module on Ghana highlights a fiscal transparency module. Ghana meets the standards of the fiscal transparency code in several areas. In spite of the progress, the transparency of fiscal activities still falls short of...

The economic outlook remains clouded by regional and domestic security concerns. Real GDP growth and inflation were broadly in line with program projections in 2001–02. The balance of payments position unproved faster than expected. The budget deficit target for 2001–02 (as set...

Fiscal problems have long been considered a central feature of financial--that is, currency, debt, and banking--crises. This paper addresses four questions: What are the fiscal causes of crises? Which fiscal vulnerability indicators help to predict crises? Can fiscal variables explain the...

This paper reviews the IMF’s discussions with Eastern Caribbean Currency Union’s (ECCU) regional institutions. Discussions focused on the outlook for 2003 and the policy responses needed to arrest the fiscal deterioration and to achieve consolidation over the medium term. Although...

Monetary developments in the first half of 2003 were largely in line with expectations, except for credit to the private sector, which has accelerated significantly in recent months. The overall deficit of the consolidated government was 4.5 percent of GDP in 2002–03, lower than the...

This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix surveys the main reasons for Papua New Guinea’s disappointing economic performance, highlighting the key impediments to growth in each of the main sectors of the economy. The paper outlines the structural reforms that could help reduce...

The financial system remains vulnerable to weak governance in smaller banks and also to weaknesses in banks’ balance sheets. Banking is characterized by high real interest rates, large spreads, and a limited appetite for lending. Stress tests indicate that the banking system is relatively...