Compared to oil and gas, metals have been rather a side issue in the economic analysis of natural resources in the last decades. However, in the recent past we saw an increase of interest in the topic, mainly driven by the heated discussion about critical metals. Rare Earth Elements (REE) are...

In this Working Paper, we describe how we used stochastic simulation to evaluate the risks surrounding the January 2006 nime Economic Outlook (neo) for the world economy. We summarise the main results by showing confidence intervals around the baseline projection as well as probabilities that...

Over the 1995-2004 period, the evolution of stock market indices in the United States and Europe exhibited a distinct boom-and-bust pattern, rising dramatically during the second half of the 1990s and falling sharply at the turn of the century. These changes in asset prices affected household...

In this Working Paper, we use the nime model to assess the macroeconomic effects of an oil price shock on the world economy. We start with an overview of the nime model, and a presentation of our modelling of oil price shocks. Next, we examine the effect of a permanent 25 per cent increase in...

In this paper, the dynamical behaviors of a class of weighted local-world evolving networks with aging nodes are investigated. As the network grows, each newly added node is connected to some existing nodes through strength–age preferential attachment. Each time step, the newly added node with...