Decision-makers sometimes rely on past data to learn statistical relationships between variables. However, when predicting a target variable, they must adjust how they aggregate past information depending on the observables available. If agents have information on all observables, it is optimal...

This study examines whether complete transparency about the randomness of prediction-generating processes mitigates the hot hand fallacy and the conditions under which it may fail. In a pre-registered laboratory experiment (N=750), we showed that transparency about the prediction-generating...

This paper aims to solve two fundamental problems on finite or infinite horizon dynamic games with complete information. Under some mild conditions, we prove the existence of subgame-perfect equilibria and the upper hemicontinuity of equilibrium payoffs in general dynamic games with simultaneous...