Goldsmith, Benjamin E; Butcher, Charles R; Semenovich, … - In: Journal of Peace Research 50 (2013) 4, pp. 437-452
We present what is, to the best of our knowledge, the first published set of annual out-of-sample forecasts of genocide and politicide based on a global dataset. Our goal is to produce a prototype for a real-time model capable of forecasting one year into the future. Building on the current...