Eliasson, Jonas; Fosgerau, Mogens - CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI) - 2013
A number of highly cited papers by Flyvbjerg and associates have shown that ex-ante infrastructure appraisals tend to be overly optimistic. Ex post evaluations indicate a bias where investment cost is higher and demand lower on average than predicted ex ante. These authors argue that the bias...