Background: Understanding how logistics structure affects fiscal performance and exposure to disruption is critical in import-dependent economies. This study examines the concentration of Ecuador's import logistics system using customs revenue as an operational-fiscal proxy. Methods: The...

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic triggered unprecedented mobility disruptions worldwide as governments imposed strict lockdowns to contain the spread of the virus. In India, prolonged restrictions severely affected economic activity, particularly for migrant workers, leading to a large-scale...

This work presents a practical approach to improve risk quantification for heavy-tailed insurance claims through model averaging and grid map visualization, addressing the drawbacks of traditional single "best" model selection commonly used in actuarial and model-fitting literature. This is a...

Generative AI systems often display highly uneven performance across tasks that appear "nearby": they can be excellent on one prompt and confidently wrong on another with only small changes in wording or context. We call this phenomenon Artificial Jagged Intelligence (AJI). This paper develops a...

Recessions that follow asset price booms accompanied by high credit growth are deeper and longer-lasting than those following asset price booms without strong debt accumulation. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with a rational asset bubble and an occasionally binding borrowing...