Whether people prefer a democratic system is difficult to judge when speaking freely carries personal dangers. We introduce an incentivized experimental task to reveal implicit preference for democracy without referencing politically-sensitive terms. We validate the task with data from émigrés...

In risk management, the probability distribution must adequately capture the risks that matter most, namely the outliers. I estimate the parameters as if the sample were upper censored to put the focus to the most negative observations (non-censored outliers) and then only estimate the...

A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is used to model the VIX (the Cboe Volatility Index). A 4- state Gaussian mixture is fitted to the VIX price history from 1990 to 2022. Using a growing window of training data, the price of the S&P500 is predicted and two trading algorithms are presented, based on the...

The real estate market in China has been growing rapidly during the past decade, with different property price patterns across various regions. Among different types of properties, prices of retail properties have not been sufficiently analyzed. This study focuses on forecasting problems of...

E-commerce warehouses are under constant pressure to adapt their order picking systems and reassign product storage locations to meet fluctuating customer demands. Most existing approaches optimize storage location reassignments based on customer orders and operational configurations to maintain...