We propose a novel time-series econometric framework to forecast U.S. Presidential election outcomes in real time by combining polling data, economic fundamentals, and political prediction market prices. Our model estimates the joint dynamics of voter preferences across states. Applying our...

In the last decade, companies around the globe have significantly invested in the development of anti-corruption compliance programmes. Assessing the effectiveness of these programmes has proven challenging and requires that companies go beyond a box-checking approach, set clear objectives,...