On average, German firms expect about 7 percent productivity gains from AI for their own business by 2029. Expected gains are especially high in industries dominated by tasks like programming, writing, and customer service. Firms are more optimistic about macroeconomic productivity effects than...

We study how U.S. dollar fluctuations transmit through domestic supply chains in emerging markets. Large firms borrow in foreign currency and extend trade credit to domestic partners, exposing the supply chain to exchange rate risk. We develop a model where financially constrained suppliers pass...

This paper reviews recent developments in the economics of human development, focusing on the early years of life as a critical period for shaping long-term outcomes. Early childhood development is inherently multidimensional: cognitive and socioemotional skills evolve dynamically and interact...

This paper presents a physics-based hazard model for catastrophe (CAT) modelling of urban flood risk-a first step toward a complete CAT modelling framework. We introduce a linear second-order ordinary differential equation (ODE) system to simulate the underlying mechanisms of water accumulation,...