This study explores the critical yet often misunderstood distinction between risk and uncertainty. The research examines how knowledge and expertise can contribute to an illusion of control in uncertain environments, leading decision-makers to misclassify uncertainty as risk. This...

Do criminal groups which help maintain order strengthen the fiscal contract or weaken it? This paper examines how the presence of organized-crime groups shapes Mexican municipalities' ability to collect revenue, deliver public goods, and earn citizens' trust. Survey data show that residents...

We provide evidence in line with the illusion of moral superiority, a phenomenon that individuals perceive themselves to be more morally motivated than others. We analyze survey data collected during the 2022/23 energy crisis in Germany to investigate individuals' and others' motivations to...

In countries with low female employment, college educated women often transition directly from education to homemaking. Does this reflect informed, forward-looking choices or unanticipated constraints? We study this question in Pakistan, where two-thirds of college-educated women remain out of...

We study whether and how EU banks comply with tighter macroprudential policy (MPP). Observing contractual details for more than one million securitized loans, we document an elusive risk-shifting response by EU banks in reaction to tighter loan-to-value (LTV) restrictions between 2009 and 2022....