This paper assesses the macroeconomic impact of deglobalisation scenarios using an estimated three-region global dynamic general equilibrium framework, considering the euro area, the US, and the rest of the world. We focus on two structural deglobalisation trend scenarios: first, exogenous...

This paper explores the macroeconomic implications of lowering the inflation target in an Emerging Market such as South Africa using the IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF). Model-based simulations indicate that lowering the inflation target from 4.5 to 3 percent, as...

We estimate the macroeconomic effects of shifting to a lower inflation target for South Africa, within a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) framework identified using the Max Share Identification strategy and estimated with Bayesian methods. We find that a decrease of 1% (in terms of...