This paper proposes a novel assessment of the Kuznets curve for an underdeveloped country engaging in rapid late development. We mobilize new long-run data for Brazil, combining surveys, administrative records, and national accounts statistics, to compute macro-consistent income shares and other...

This paper examines how African cities can reconcile rapid urbanization and development imperatives with urgent decarbonization goals through structural transformation. It begins by mapping key sources of urban carbon - energy poverty, inefficient buildings, poor planning, transport systems,...

The paper discusses the growing interest in using social protection to address climate-related vulnerabilities and strengthen resilience, particularly in conflict-affected settings. It examines the Productive Safety Net Programme in Ethiopia, highlighting that while social assistance offers a...

This paper studies the emergence of violence in legal markets, with a particular focus on the informal public transport sector in South Africa, where minibus taxis are integral to urban mobility. Despite being a legal sector, the taxi industry is plagued by significant and persistent violence,...

Seven decades ago, Simon Kuznets put forward the hypothesis that as economies developed, national inequality would first increase and then decrease-an inverted U-shape. He provided preliminary evidence for the hypothesis on the basis of the limited data available at the time, and theorized the...

This paper proposes that the South African Reserve Bank should pursue a 3% inflation target, instead of the current 4.5% midpoint of a 3%-to-6% target range. Doing so may also result in lower inflation volatility, thereby reducing nominal exchange rate risk for investment and trade, and may thus...

South Africa's grid remains unstable and characterized by frequent power cuts. Employing a generalized difference-in-difference approach, this paper examines the implications of South Africa's electricity crises on jobs, capital investment, and exporting across manufacturing firms in the...

Zambia's reliance on rain-fed agriculture makes its economy and population highly vulnerable to frequent droughts and irregular rainfall. This paper assesses the role of social protection, specifically the Social Cash Transfer (SCT) program, in mitigating drought-induced poverty and consumption...

This working paper examines the prevalence of humanitarian crises in Tanzania, their role in perpetuating poverty cycles, and how poverty graduation programmes mitigate these effects by building the resilience of ultra-poor households. We utilize a mixed-methods approach, comprising desk...

This study explores the social protection and humanitarian emergency nexus in Zambia. Drawing on 25 stakeholder interviews and relevant literature sources, it seeks to (i) identify the social protection needs experienced in the country in the context of different shocks and crises; (ii)...