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Pandemic-era inflation dynamics in the euro area : the role of policy and non-policy demand and energy and non-energy supply factors

Barauskaitė Griškevičienė, Kristina; Brand, Claus; … - 2026

We analyze the sources of the pandemic-era inflation surge in the euro area using a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model. By applying narrative, sign, zero, and inequality restrictions, this study is the first that jointly analyzes the inflationary effects of energy and non-energy supply...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015618081

Interlinking payment systems and trade flows

Ferrari, Massimo Minesso; Lebastard, Laura; Triay … - 2026

This paper provides the first causal estimate of the economic impact of interlinking payment systems across countries. We exploit a new dataset of payment systems interlinking initiatives, which identifies over 2,000 connections, and employ standard gravity methods to estimate their impact on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015618092

Heatwaves, coldwaves, floods, and droughts : the short-term impact of extreme weather events on economic activity

Andersson, Malin; Battistini, Niccolò; Bobasu, Alina - 2026

This paper examines the short-term macroeconomic and sectoral effects of extreme weather events in Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. We construct novel indicators of extreme temperature and precipitation based on percentile thresholds of long-run historical distributions and estimate their...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015618093

Housing wealth and monetary policy transmission : cross-country evidence

Di Casola, Paola; Grothe, Magdalena - 2026

This paper quantifies the role of housing wealth in the transmission of monetary policy to consumption in 20 advanced economies. Using Bayesian VAR models we identify structural shocks with a novel combination of sign and maximum forecast error variance restrictions, isolating the housing wealth...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015618097

Repo market networks : dynamics under financial stress

Schöller, Vanessa - 2026

The smooth functioning of the repo market is essential to financial stability. However, the market has faced repeated episodes of stress in recent years. This paper examines the resilience of the euro-denominated repo market during recent episodes of elevated financial stress, drawing on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015618106

Digital banking and the evolving monetary policy transmission

Budnik, Katarzyna - 2026

This paper maps the euro-area digital-banking segment and assesses how digital banks transmit monetary policy relative to brick-and-mortar peers. I compile a hand-checked universe of over 170 digital banks (2016-2025) from supervisory data, classifying institutions by business model (e-retail,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015618109

A quantile probability model for sectoral corporate defaults in Europe

Konietschke, Paul; Metzler, Julian; Marques, Aurea Ponte - 2026

Conventional credit risk models understate tail risk by centering on mean default probabilities and neglecting distributional and sectoral heterogeneity. We propose a Quantile Probability of Default (QPD) framework based on unconditional quantile regressions estimated on flow default rates from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015618110

Who to regulate? : Identifying actors within DeFi's governance

Born, Alexandra; Gati, Zakaria; Lambert, Claudia; … - 2026

Decentralised Finance (DeFi) emerged in 2021 as a fast-growing crypto segment, attracting policymakers' attention due to its innovative approach of delivering financial services without relying on centralised intermediaries. This paper assesses DeFi governance arrangements for regulating and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015618124

Bond funds' risk taking and monetary policy

Anyphantakē, Sophia; Giannakidis, Haris; … - 2026

Using granular security-level data from bond funds domiciled in the US and the euro area, we identify a market-based risk-taking channel of monetary policy transmission via the credit-risk and the maturity structure of bond funds' portfolios. We measure credit risk at the fund level as the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015610151

The great redistribution that wasn't : a HANK-OLG perspective on monetary policy

Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał; Dinis Rigato, Rodolfo - 2026

We study the distributional consequences of the recent inflationary surge and the subsequent monetary policy response in the euro area. Using an estimated two-asset Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model with an overlapping generations structure, we analyze the macroeconomic shocks driving...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015610273