This paper uses a large historical dataset (1870-2016) for 16 industrial economies to show that during macroeconomic disasters (e.g., wars, pandemics, depressions) aggregate consumption and income are significantly less decoupled than during normal times. That is, during these times of turmoil,...

We characterize the dispersion of firm-level productivity and demand shocks over the business cycle using Swedish microdata including prices and analyse the consequences for firms and the aggregate economy. Demand dispersion increases by more than productivity dispersion in recessions....

This paper investigates arbitrage activities in China’s stock market to examine whether arbitrageurs destabilize stock prices. We focus on reversal anomaly and construct a measure of arbitrage intensity, coreversal, which captures the abnormal return correlation among stocks on which a...

I construct an infinite-horizon dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with a collateral constraint and actual default in equilibrium. Entrepreneurs borrow from households through non-recourse debt contracts backed by capital goods. By taking into account the non-linear payoffs of the...

Based on monthly data from 1970 to 2022 and the AUROC performance metric, we show that yield curve inversions generally predict recessions in the euro area. However, there are two important limitations. First, the forecasting capability of the yield curve has tended to weaken since the global...

In the wake of the financial crisis, policymakers expressed the concern that banks’ use of the incurred loss model exacerbates their lending procyclicality by delaying the recognition of loan losses to recessions. Responding to this concern, the FASB issued Accounting Standards Update 2016-13,...

The tilt effect was broadly studied in the 1970s and early 1980s, when inflation rates were rising rapidly and even reached the double digits, but scholars seemed to lose interest as inflation rates declined and central banks committed to price stability. However, the tilt effect is harmful even...

Uncertainty rises sharply during economic downturns at both the micro and macro level. Leveraging a new solution method, I study the interaction between micro and macro uncertainty in a globally solved Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) model with aggregate risk, counter-cyclical...

In any economy, monetary policy is as essential as fiscal policy in driving growth and in India, it is no different. Our monetary policy is determined by the Reserve Bank of India in consultation with Monetary Policy Committee which is headed by the RBI Governor while Fiscal Policy is determined...