Timely updates of business cycle fluctuations-commonly represented by movements in the output gap-help policymakers make informed decisions on the appropriate course of action. Unfortunately, business cycle assessments often suffer from lags in actual gross domestic product data releases. This...

We investigate cyclical changes in workers' task portfolios, highlighting their direction, magnitude, and distribution. Task changes are not only very common but provide information about the skills required across jobs. During recessions, a larger share of employer switches do not involve task...

By applying a simple dynamic general equilibrium model without exogenous shocks inhabited by infinitely lived capitalists and workers, we show that a higher degree of relative risk aversion can destabilize an economy. In traditional real business cycle (RBC) theory, a higher degree of relative...

Over the past few decades, fiscal policy has been about 30 percent more procyclical and about 40 percent more volatile in commodity-exporting emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) than in other EMDEs. Both procyclicality and volatility of fiscal policy-which share some underlying...

Libya's economic outlook relies heavily on the oil and gas sector, which constitutes a significant portion of its GDP, government revenue, and exports. With oil production expected to average 1.1 mbpd in 2024, GDP is anticipated to shrink by 2.7 percent this year. As oil output recovers in 2025...

The special topic analyses the results of the questions on investment included in the October-November surveys for the manufacturing and services sectors, enquiring about business investment in 2024, as well as plans for 2025. On aggregate in the EU, managers' assessment of the change in...