This paper investigates the link between Bitcoin and macroeconomic fundamentals by estimating the impact of macroeconomic news on Bitcoin using an event study with intraday data. The key result is that, unlike other U.S. asset classes, Bitcoin is orthogonal to monetary and macroeconomic news....

This paper examines the asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and oil price uncertainty (OPU) on inflation by using a Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model, which is compared to a benchmark linear ARDL one. Using monthly data from the 1990s until August 2022 for a number of developed and...

During decades of market development, the individual financial markets of the member economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have been progressively incorporated into regional and international markets. The aim of this study is to explore and measure the strength and...

This paper analyzes the performance of temporal fusion transformers in forecasting realized volatilities of stocks listed in the S&P 500 in volatile periods by comparing the predictions with those of state-of-the-art machine learning methods as well as GARCH models. The models are trained on...

Over the past two decades, the Black Sea region has exhibited significantly growing wheat production and exports. In 2017/18, Russia ultimately became the world’s largest wheat exporter, a position that was held by the USA for decades. Mostly serving destination markets in the Middle East and...

The research in this paper is focused on the innovative range-based volatility models introduced in Alizadeh, Brandt, and Diebold (2002) (hereafter ABD). We develop new option pricing models using multi-factor diffusion approximations couched within this theoretical framework and examine their...