In this paper we develop a dynamic model for integer counts to capture the dis- creteness of price changes for financial transaction prices. Our model rests on an autoregressive multinomial component for the direction of the price change and a dynamic count data component for the size of the...

In this paper we propose a model for the conditional multivariate density of integer count variables defined on the set Zn. Applying the concept of copula functions, we allow for a general form of dependence between the marginal processes which is able to pick up the complex nonlinear dynamics...

As a group, market forecasters are egregiously overconfident. In conformity to the dynamic model of overconfidence of Gervais and Odean (2001), successful forecasters have become more overconfident. What's more, more experienced forecasters have learned to be overconfident, and hence are more...

This paper considers simultaneous modelling of seasonality, slowly changing un- conditional variance and conditional heteroskedasticity in high-frequency fiancial returns. A new approach, called a seasonal SEMIGARCH model, is proposed to perform this by introducing multiplicative seasonal and...

Do financial market analysts use structural economic models when forecasting exchange rates? This is the leading question analysed in this apper. In contrast to other studies we use expectations instead of realised data. Therefore we analyse the implicit structural models forecasters have in...

Strong lending relationships between banks and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) play a key role in the bank-based financial system of Germany. So far, they have been mainly described by the notion of a housebank and transactional features of long-term bank-customer relationships. In...

The paper investigates the impact of corporate governance on the performance of 361 German corporations over the time period 1991 to 1996. We find ownership concentration to affect profitability significantly negatively. Representation of owners on the board of executive directors does not make...

This paper delineates the simultaneous impact of non-anticipated information on mean and variance of the intraday return process by including appropriate variables accounting for the news flow into both the mean and the variance function. This allows us to differentiate between the consistent...