In federal countries, such as the U.S., the fiscal authority consists not of one, but many governments, with state governments accounting for a sizable share of expenditures. We analyze how state partisanship of politicians affects state fiscal policy and quantify the possible macroeconomic...

The functional income distribution in the US and most OECD countries has been characterized by an increasing capital income share and a declining wage share over the last decades. We present new evidence for the US economy that this fact is not only explained by technical change and...

We propose a novel framework where forward guidance (FG) is endogenously determined. Our model assumes that a monetary authority solves an optimal policy problem under commitment at the zero-lower bound. FG derives from two sources: 1. from commiting to keep interest rates low at the exit of the...

The idea of a Europe of regions has appeared in Western Europe in the 60s. Also in the 60s the first cooperation between neighboring regions created on the borders of France, Switzerland and Germany. The opportunities of the economic development with future EU Member States should not be...

We investigate whether US government spending multipliers are higher during periods of heightened uncertainty or economic slack as opposed to normal times. Using quarterly historical data and local projections, we estimate a cumulative one-year multiplier of 2 during uncertain periods. In...

We study the impact of fiscal rules on macroeconomic performance following natural disaster shocks, using dynamic panel models and quarterly data for 89 countries. We find that countries with fiscal rules perform significantly better in the aftermath of such shocks than countries without rules....

This paper evaluates the temporary VAT reduction invoked by the German government over the third and fourth quarter of 2020 as part of the COVID-19 stimulus package. There is considerable controversy. Critics argue that VAT reductions are ineffective in the presence of lockdown measures in place...

In response to the spillovers of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy, many governments paid cash transfers to households. We examine the effect of this fiscal policy instrument on households in two emerging economies, Vietnam and Thailand. Our analysis is based representative population surveys...

The paper uses a panel of more than 1m German firms over 2010-2016, to provide the first firm-bank level evidence of local crowding out for a developed economy characterized by low interest rates and fiscal austerity. Our mechanism relies on two structural features of Germany's banking...