Two otherwise identical firms that enter the same market in different months, one in January and one in December, will report dramatically different annual sales for the first calendar year of operations. This partial year effect in annual data leads to downward biased observations of the level...

Over the past two decades, international trade has become a privileged engine of growth for much of the developing world. With the global economy evolving continuously and rapidly, countries must pay close attention to their positioning on the map of global trade and production. Within this...

The failure of trade economists to anticipate the extreme drop in trade post Lehman Brothers bankruptcy suggests that the behavior of trade in exceptional circumstances may still be poorly understood. This paper explores whether uncertainty shocks have explanatory power for movements in trade....

As globalization progresses and investment is mobile, it is ever more important for policy makers to understand drivers of growth and exports at the micro-level: Which products are being produced and exported? Which firms populate the domestic economy? Are they successful in exporting? How are...

The rapid evolution of the global economy, driven by digitization and modularization, has outpaced existing theoretical tools. This paper proposes a unified analytical framework for understanding the complexity of digital industries through the lens of Massive Modular Ecosystems. To...

This paper explores the effects of industrial policy on trade, focusing on the role of preferential trade agreements. The analysis uses data for the period 2012-2022 on detailed product-level bilateral trade, industrial policy announcements, and rules on subsidies in different preferential trade...

This study examines the role of multinational firms and global value chain linkages in the cross-country diffusion of emerging technologies. The analysis combines detailed information on the near-universe of online job postings in 17 countries with data on multinational networks and firm-to-firm...

In the Western Balkans, trade and transport policy reforms that reduce waiting time at the border by just three hours are equivalent to removing a value-based tariff of 2 percent. Reform gains are maximized when they are coordinated across economies and implemented jointly: cross-border...

This paper develops measures of the diffusion of a comprehensive range of low-carbon technologies in 35 countries from 2019 to 2022 using text analysis of job postings and earnings calls transcripts. It documents a rapid acceleration in the diffusion of low-carbon technologies in 2022, driven by...