This paper studies method of simulated moments (MSM) estimators that are implemented using Bayesian methods, specifically Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Motivation and theory for the methods is provided by Chernozhukov and Hong (2003). The paper shows, experimentally, that confidence intervals...

We propose a framework for consistently evaluating core inflation measures via a straightforward application of sound statistical inference principles. Under this framework, inflation measures (both headline and core) are regarded as estimators tracking the economy's true, unobserved inflation...

Capital structure theories are often formulated as causal narratives to explain which factors drive financing choices. These narratives are usually examined by estimating cross-sectional relations between leverage and its determinants. However, the limitations of causal inference from...

Forest degradation by fires is growing in a fast pace in the Brazilian portion of the Amazonian rainforest, damaging the regional environment and economy. Seeking to measure the impact of such process on rainfall, the paper analyses a wide diversity of fine-grained satellite measurements with...

We consider the problem of constructing honest confidence intervals (CIs) for a scalar parameter of interest, such as the regression discontinuity parameter, in nonparametric regression based on kernel or local polynomial estimators. To ensure that our CIs are honest, we use critical values that...

Given a set of baseline assumptions, a breakdown frontier is the boundary between the set of assumptions which lead to a specific conclusion and those which do not. In a potential outcomes model with a binary treatment, we consider two conclusions: First, that ATE is at least a specific value...