We consider which labor market variables are the most informative for estimating and nowcasting the US output gap using a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition. Although the unemployment rate clearly contains important cyclical information, it also appears to reflect more persistent movements...

This paper adopts a novel approach to studying the evolution of interest rate term structure over the U.S. business cycles and to predicting recessions. Applying an effective algorithm, I classify the Treasury yield curve into distinct shapes and find the less frequent shapes intrinsically...

The Spanish economy was the most hit by the Great Recession. It suffered a greater decrease in the gross domestic product (GDP) (affecting especially internal demand). However, it suffered a greater increase in exports (the so-called Spanish "miracle"). Particularly, Spanish SMEs incorporation...

In this paper, based on a quarterly dataset of G7 countries with the application of a nonlinear ARDL model we test for the presence of a short-run and long-term asymmetry in the relationship between government spending and economic activity. The main aim of this study is to analyze the...

Real exchange rate (RER) misalignment, which is the deviation between the actual real exchange rate from its equilibrium, occurs frequently among developing economies. Studies have shown that RER misalignment may have negative economic implications, such as a reduction in economic growth,...

Context: After the Eurozone crisis unfolded a decade ago, comparative political economy has investigated reforms of public administration, labour market, welfare state and economic policy particularly in Southern European nations which were hit hardest by the crisis. However, analyses of skill...

In this paper, we study the effects of uncertainty shocks in a quantitative framework where firms in the corporate sector are constrained by credit. Specifically, we formulate borrowing constraints as a nested function that features both earnings and capital as alternative instruments for...

Recently, many papers have shown evidence of a positive association between financial market participation and wealth holdings. It is often claimed that individuals with a higher level of financial market participation exhibit a higher propensity for planning retirement. In their planning...