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The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note is among the most cited interest rates by investors, policymakers, and fnancial institutions. We show that the 10-year Treasury yield's forward-looking volatility, a VIX-style measure that is a proxy for uncertainty about future interest rates, is a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014530189
This paper adopts a novel approach to studying the evolution of interest rate term structure over the U.S. business cycles and to predicting recessions. Applying an effective algorithm, I classify the Treasury yield curve into distinct shapes and find the less frequent shapes intrinsically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012886359
Government bonds are one of the safest and most attractive instruments in the investment portfolio for private investors and investment funds. Although bonds are perceived as an alternative to bank deposits, a number of macroeconomic factors influence their yield. The goal of the research is to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013365593
economies that had not been seen in decades. This pushed up interest rates, which in turn led to higher yields in global bond … markets. This study examines two distinct channels that transmit advanced economy inflation to emerging market bond yields by … and contraction in emerging market bond yields. Second, the shortrun effect of advanced economy inflation on the bond …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014368399
Gaussian affine term structure models attribute time‐varying bond risk premia to changing risk prices driven by the … model with recursive preferences. Our model is affine and has analytical bond prices making it empirically tractable. We use … particle Markov chain Monte Carlo to estimate the model, and find that time variation in bond term premia is predominantly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012316725
dynamics and measures the persistence of shocks to the sovereign bond yield volatility in India from 1 January 2016, to 18 May …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014500716
We study the relation between bond characteristics and corporate bond returns in China's two distinct and segmented … bond markets-the interbank market and the exchange market-with a large cross-sectional dataset of 8318 corporate bonds from … Amihud illiquidity earn high monthly returns in the interbank market. The return predictive patterns of bond size, time to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014514164
conventional bond return, while conventional sovereign bonds are affected by the financial market return. Furthermore, the results … confirm that the liquidity of sovereign green bonds can be explained by bond maturity. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014636295
This paper analyzes the influence of downside risk on defaultable bond returns. By introducing a defaultable bond … bond excess returns using a portfolio-level analysis and Fama-MacBeth regressions. We find that downside risk is a strong … and robust predictor for future bond returns. In addition, due to the higher proportion of abnormal transactions in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013206142
sovereign yield curves, in this paper, we investigate certain characteristics of the Romanian government bond market. We perform …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013273600