In this paper, we develop an equilibrium framework to explain the characteristics of volatility index (VIX) futures prices and returns across maturities. In the framework, the investors prefer VIX futures with specific maturities, and the arbitrageurs optimize portfolios based on mean-variance...

Following (Almeida, Ardison, Kubudi, Simonsen, & Vicente, 2018) we implement a segmented three factor Nelson-Siegel model for the yield curve using daily observable bond prices and short term interbank rates for Colombia. The flexible estimation for each segment (short, medium, and long)...

The purpose of this study is to estimate the natural yield curve for an emerging economy, with Indonesia as a case study. The estimation is done by a two-stage approach, namely, the decomposition of the yield curve component through a dynamic Nelson-Siegel model, the results of which are then...

This study examines the impact of changes in the yield curve factors on the Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads of the U.S. industrial sectors. Stock returns and the crude oil-based volatility index are used in a quantile regression framework to test the validity of Merton’s model. The results...

Using option prices, a new method for estimating the term structure of expected stock returns (equity curve) is proposed. We analyse how the equity curve relates to future stock returns and obtain three main results. First, a higher level of the equity curve is associated with higher future...

This paper examines the predictive ability of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates in the BRICS and G7 countries by relating each country’s monthly 3‑month Treasury bill rate to 10‑year government bond rates, from May 2003 to May 2018. The panel ARDL model,...

The aim of this study is to test the ability of the yield curve on US government bonds to forecast the future evolution in the prices of commodities often used in as raw materials. We consider the monthly prices of nine commodities for more than 30 years. Our findings, confirmed by several...

This paper studies the predictive power for recessions of the slope of the Swiss term structure using monthly data for 1974-2017. Dynamic probit models indicate that the term structure contains information useful for predicting recessions for horizons up to 19 months. Whether the economy is...

We develop a dynamic model of a BHC that encompasses both a trading desk and a loan desk, and explore the role of risk attitude and overleveraging by the trading desk. We trace the impact of monetary policy and market innovations on bank behavior in the presence of Basel III type regulations. We...

We compare parametric and machine learning techniques (namely: Neural Networks) for in-sample modeling of the yield curve of the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). To such aim, we applied the Dynamic De Rezende-Ferreira five-factor model with time-varying decay...