Using a Markov-switching VAR, we show that the effects of uncertainty shocks on output are four times higher in a regime of economic distress than in a tranquil regime. We then provide a structural interpretation of these facts. To do so, we develop a business cycle model in which agents are...

Out of four major structural changes affecting the US economy - namely a rising share of skilled workers, skill-biased technological change, decreasing progressiveness of taxation and productivity slowdown - we show that the decline in productivity growth not only is the main driver of the...