Causal effects of a policy change on hazard rates of a duration outcome variable are not identified from a comparison of spells before and after the policy change if there is unobserved heterogeneity in the effects and no model structure is imposed. We develop a discontinuity approach that...

In der Grundsicherung sollen die Jobcenter mit allen erwerbsfähigen Leistungsberechtigten eine Eingliederungsvereinbarung abschließen. Die Vereinbarung legt Rechte und Pflichten beider Vertragsparteien fest. Sie regelt insbesondere, welche Bemühungen Arbeitsuchende in welcher Häufigkeit und...

We analyze unique data on three sources of information on the probability of re‑employment within 6 months (RE6), for the same individuals sampled from the inflow into unemployment. First, they were asked for their perceived probability of RE6. Second, their caseworkers revealed whether they...