This paper studies the joint dynamics of U.S. inflation and a term structure of average inflation predictions taken from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). We estimate these joint dynamics by combining an unobserved components (UC) model of inflation and a sticky‐information...

This paper proposes long-run estimates of ex ante real interest rates in Switzerland and other developed economies, and it describes their relative evolution. Our results highlight the decline in-and convergence of-global real interest rates that has unfolded over the last three decades for all...