This paper exploits gaps between observed and recently forecasted Gross Domestic Product growth in export destinations to estimate the effects of unexpected demand shocks on worker compensation. Using employer-employee panel data, the paper finds that the revenues from these demand shocks are...

This paper examines whether and how rainfall shocks affect tariff setting in the agricultural sector. In a model of strategic trade policy, the authors show that the impact of a negative rainfall shock on optimal import tariffs is generally ambiguous, depending on the weight placed by the...

Imported digital goods are critical for productivity growth in low-income countries. Using detailed data on international trade flows and tariffs, this paper finds that African nations tend to import relatively low quality, low price digital goods. It also finds that digital goods in Africa are...

This paper develops measures of the diffusion of a comprehensive range of low-carbon technologies in 35 countries from 2019 to 2022 using text analysis of job postings and earnings calls transcripts. It documents a rapid acceleration in the diffusion of low-carbon technologies in 2022, driven by...

The Belt and Road Initiative seeks to deepen China's international integration by improving infrastructure and strengthening trade and investment linkages with countries along the old Silk Road, thereby linking it to Europe. This paper uses detailed bilateral trade data for 1995-2015 to assess...

This paper uncovers new stylized facts on the emergence and diffusion of green technologies across countries, sectors, and firms. It draws on the textual analysis of patents and corporate earnings calls matched with multi-country, firm-level panel data for 2012-2021. The paper documents the...

Fixed costs associated with learning about demand and setting up distribution networks are expected to be lower when there are more potential contacts in the destination market, suggesting a greater probability of market entry and larger export revenues. The authors match historically-determined...

How much do schools differ in their effectiveness? Recent studies that seek to answer this question account for student sorting using random assignment generated by central allocation mechanisms or oversubscribed schools. However, the resulting estimates, while causal, may also reflect peer...

We examine whether and how the educational background of political leaders matters for policy choices and outcomes. Using data on municipalities in Brazil from 2000-2008, we estimate the effects of electing a more educated leader in a regression-discontinuity design whereby policy inputs and...

This study examines the role of multinational firms and global value chain linkages in the cross-country diffusion of emerging technologies. The analysis combines detailed information on the near-universe of online job postings in 17 countries with data on multinational networks and firm-to-firm...