We present evidence on the extent of measurement error in German longitudinal earnings data. Qualitatively, we confirm the main result of the international literature: longitudinal earnings data are relatively reliable in a cross section but much less so in first differences. Quantitatively, in...

We document the sources behind the costs of job loss over the business cycle using administrative data from Germany. Losses in annual earnings after displacement are large, persistent, and highly cyclical, nearly doubling in size during downturns. A large part of the long-term earnings losses...

We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level...