Automatic stabilisers are fiscal policy's first line of defence in the face of adverse economic shocks. Automatic stabilisers capture fiscal policy's automatic countercyclical response to the state of the business cycle, and are determined by factors like the progressivity of the tax system, the...

In order to enhance fiscal sustainability and regain “investment grade” credit rating, in 2011 Colombia implemented a fiscal rule (FR) on the Central Government's structural balance. Investment grade was rapidly attained, and FR targets were complied with, until 2019. Using the Synthetic...

We use supervised machine learning to approximate the expectations typically contained in the optimality conditions of an economic model in the spirit of the parameterized expectations algorithm (PEA) with stochastic simulation. When the set of state variables is generated by a stochastic...

Narratives that portray macroeconomic policies in Japan as unlike ones pursued in other large economies persist. I revisit how several factors, including monetary, fiscal, and demographic factors impact Japan, the US, and the euro area. Panel VARs driven by factors or observed macroeconomic...

In order to quantitatively assess the potential effects from the ongoing transformation of the fiscal framework of the European Union, we evaluate the economic and public finance stabilization properties of two benchmark fiscal rules using a New Keynesian small open economy model. If these...

This research employs a quadratic exponential model to examine the dynamics of fiscal adjustments in the context of oil shocks. The findings suggest significant state dependence, with past fiscal adjustments increasing the likelihood of future adjustments and an asymmetry in oil shock effects....

We study the welfare and macroeconomic implications of simple and implementable fiscal policy rules in commodity-dependent economies, where a large share of output, exports, and government revenues depend on exogenous and volatile commodity prices. Using a multi-sector New Keynesian model...

This paper analyses the impact of various macroeconomic shocks - including aggregate demand, supply, monetary policy, real exchange rate, and budget deficit deviation shocks - on Romania's economy using a VAR model with Bayesian inference. The study captures the period following the adoption of...

This paper analyses the emergence of internal debtor-creditor relationships within a monetary union. Developing a stock- ow consistent model consisting of three regions - North, South, and the Rest of the World (RoW), where North and South form a monetary union - it shows how the simultaneous...

The present paper is concerned with the prospect of euro adoption in Romania. The study starts from the relevant literature of the Optimum Currency Areas and identifies the most widely acknowledged meta property and methodological model for this purpose: the SVAR Blanchard and Quah decomposition...