This paper studies high-frequency econometric methods to test for a jump in the spread of bond yields. We propose a coherent inference procedure that detects a jump in the yield spread only if at least one of the two underlying bonds displays a jump. Ignoring this inherent connection by basing...

We estimate the term premium implicit in 10-year Mexican government bonds from2004 to 2019, and analyze the main determinants explaining its dynamics. We decomposethe long-term interest rate into its two components: the expected short-terminterest rate and the term premium. The first is obtained...

Does Indian sovereign yield volatility reflect economic fundamentals, or whether it is a self-generated force flowing through markets with little connection to such fundamentals? To answer the question, this research explores the volatility dynamics and measures the persistence of shocks to the...

This study compares the size and power of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) tests that are robust to the presence of a misspecified conditional mean. The approaches employed are based on two nonparametric regressions for the conditional mean: an ARCH test with a...

This study investigates the effectiveness of ROM. We conducted the GARCH (1,1) Model to determine whether ROM contributed to decreasing the volatility of USD/TL exchange rate for the period 2013-2014. We construct four Models where four different variables are separately used that represent the...

This paper adopts a novel approach to studying the evolution of interest rate term structure over the U.S. business cycles and to predicting recessions. Applying an effective algorithm, I classify the Treasury yield curve into distinct shapes and find the less frequent shapes intrinsically...

This article provides several estimates for the shadow rate (SR) of the short-term interest rate in US. We assume maximal models with two and three Gaussian factors, and we use forward rates to estimate the model's parameters. Based on that, we conclude that point estimates of SR should be taken...

Purposes - Indonesian government bond (known as SUN) plays an essential role in financing sustainable development in Indonesia and is a fixed income investment vehicle that attracts foreign investors. This study aims to examine the effect of macroeconomic factors or macro-risk on the yield curve...

This study aims to examine the determinants of the MIR interest rate in the Euro area for the period 2003Q1-2015Q3. By employing Fixed and Random Effects as econometric methodologies, I examine whether the MIR rate is affected by the following macroeconomic factors: unemployment rate, inflation...