Although survey‐based point predictions have been found to outperform successful forecasting models, corresponding variance forecasts are frequently diagnosed as heavily distorted. Professional forecasters who report inconspicuously low ex ante variances often produce squared forecast errors...

We study the relationship between overconfidence and the political and financial behavior of a nationally representative sample. Consistent with theoretical predictions, our findings indicate that excessive confidence in one's judgment is associated with lower portfolio diversification, greater...